Lowyat.NET: Latest topics by sansaboy

DAP. Sabah total wipeout. Next station ?

sansaboy — Sun, 30 Nov 2025 12:28:35 +0800

Gemini :

TL;DR:

The Signal: Sabah is a warning. If the "fed up" sentiment crosses the sea, DAP's "mixed seats" will collapse first.

The Kill Zone: Bentong, Raub, Labis, and Teluk Intan are on life support. They only survive because Chinese turnout is maxed out (80%+).

The Reality: If Chinese turnout drops to 60% (due to protest or apathy), the Malay vote bank will hand these seats to PN/BN instantly.

Conclusion: DAP's arrogance is subsidized by our high turnout. Stop the subsidy, and the "High Beta" seats go bust.

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Analysis:

Based on the Sabah election results, if we treat this sentiment as a "Leading Indicator," we can project which DAP seats in West Malaysia are most vulnerable in the next General Election (GE).

When market sentiment reverses, the "High Beta" assets (mixed seats relying on momentum) crash long before the "Blue Chips" (strongholds like Cheras/Kepong).

Here are the non-stronghold "Grey Zone" seats that are currently in the danger zone:

1. Pahang: The Most Dangerous Frontline

Pahang DAP seats are mostly mixed constituencies. DAP wins here solely because of "Maximized Chinese Support" (95% support + high turnout) to offset the deficit in Malay votes. If the Chinese turnout drops even slightly, these seats will collapse.
P089 Bentong (Young Syefura)
Risk Level: Critical.

Reasoning: This is a Malay-majority mixed seat (~50% Malay). Young Syefura won previously due to her youth appeal and residual Chinese anger towards the previous MCA candidate (Liow Tiong Lai). However, if Chinese voters perceive her as merely a "political token" or feel disillusioned enough to stay home, the combined force of the PN "Green Wave" and UMNO base will easily retake this seat.

P080 Raub (Chow Yu Hui)
Risk Level: High.

Reasoning: Historically an MCA stronghold. The local economy relies heavily on durian farming. If farmers feel the state/federal government hasn't protected their interests (e.g., land legalization issues), combined with the "teach DAP a lesson" sentiment, votes could swing back to MCA or result in mass abstention.

2. Johor: The Pragmatic Breach

Johor voters are less ideological and more pragmatic than those in KL or Penang. If DAP is seen as arrogant or ineffective, Johor voters are the most likely to switch sides.

P142 Labis (Pang Hok Liong)
Risk Level: Critical.

Reasoning: A classic semi-rural seat where MCA's grassroots machinery is still intact. If the PH government fails to deliver economic relief to smallholders, this seat is prime for a flip.

P152 Kluang (Wong Shu Qi)
Risk Level: Medium-High.

Reasoning: A political bellwether for Central Johor. While the incumbent has a good image, the Malay vote bank here has eroded significantly towards Perikatan Nasional (PN). DAP needs a massive Chinese turnout to hold this. If Chinese voters decide to "cold storage" the election (low turnout), PN or BN can win on simple Malay majority support.

3. Perak: The "Arrogance" Penalty
Perak politics is volatile. If the voters' anger is directed specifically at "Arrogance," the loudest leaders become the biggest targets.

P076 Teluk Intan (Nga Kor Ming)
Risk Level: High (Black Swan Event).

Reasoning: Despite his profile, Teluk Intan is a mixed seat with a significant Malay population. Nga Kor Ming wins because he is a "vote magnet" for the Chinese.

The Danger: If the "Taken for Granted" narrative takes hold, voters often want to punish the leader who talks the loudest. If Chinese turnout in Teluk Intan drops by 20%, or if there is a protest vote against his specific style of leadership, combined with PN's dominance in the Malay areas, this could be the most shocking defeat of the election—a "Giant Slayer" moment.

The Mechanism of Defeat: Differential Turnout
The scenario for DAP losing these seats isn't necessarily that Chinese voters suddenly love MCA or PAS. The mechanism is Differential Turnout:
Malay Voters (PN/UMNO): High motivation, high turnout (80%+) driven by identity politics.
Chinese Voters (DAP Base): Disenchantment, apathy, low turnout (dropping to ~55%).

The Conclusion:
In mixed seats, DAP’s arrogance is subsidized by high Chinese voter turnout. Once that subsidy is removed—because voters feel taken for granted—the debt becomes due, and the seat is lost.

What is update for Ron 95 subsidies ? ?

sansaboy — Wed, 07 May 2025 15:50:34 +0800

In his Budget 2025 speech, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that the government will implement targeted subsidies for RON95 petrol starting mid-2025.

https://m.malaysiakini.com/announcement/729187

2025 May already.
Apa macam

Seems like no update?
Formula also no update already?

Speeding is not the only causes

sansaboy — Tue, 25 Mar 2025 11:56:00 +0800

Reckless lane changers are worse than speeders—

yes ,they drive below speed limit ,but swerving with no signals, causing chaos.

Government’s stuck on speed cameras but ignores all other road killers

Car vs lorry truck

sansaboy — Tue, 05 Nov 2024 00:01:11 +0800

[twt]https://Twitter.com/Tslachan/status/1853268854363021431[/twt]

Only Tesla survive

China source page, video in Chinese only
Byd also not bad

https://m.dongchedi.com/video/7432701041193255463

YouTube full video
[youtube]y8WpWGiNPN4[/youtube]

Ev manufacturer with 3rd party charger operators

sansaboy — Sun, 27 Oct 2024 19:44:32 +0800

Bay 1 down for more than 6 months already
Bay 2 is working ,but the charger nozzle just leave like that inthe picture
No one care

Thought Porsche is premium brand
Very bad for brand image
If someone know manaagement team of Porsche
Welcome to show them this picture
Disgrace

Sdn bhd dividend 2% tax ?

sansaboy — Fri, 18 Oct 2024 20:50:32 +0800

So now my sdn bhd distributed dividend also will kena 2% new tax ??

Ain't this double tax alr ?

Yes I alr Whatsapp my tax agent
She said will get back to me tml

Edit update :

Someone recommend change to LLP for small business
LLP have distribution of profit
No wording of "dividend "

Might need to ask expert for this

This is lhdn documents regarding LLP
LLP is using distribution of profit among " partner"
Not share holder

So technically LLP distribution is not "dividend "

Why ppl hate USD ? ?

sansaboy — Wed, 25 Sep 2024 15:22:22 +0800

Usd increase rate = export Inflation to other countries

Usd reduce rate = export recession

Cme Fed Funds futures contact alr price in more 0.75% cut , by year end

Short end yield come down sharply, no more inversion
Market price in reflation after a recession/soft landing?

So strong USD or weak USD , we also loser at the end.....